Ecommerce Peak Season Guide: How to Navigate Seasonal Supply Chain Challenges

Throughout the year, running an ecommerce store can feel a little like sailing a ship across a rolling ocean — one minute, the waters are calm and (relatively) peaceful, and then a tidal wave hits and you’re knocked off course.

Seasonal peaks and troughs are unavoidable in most ecommerce industries, and navigating these shifting currents requires agility, flexibility, and forward planning — particularly when it comes to your supply chain.

You’ve likely heard the proverb (generally attributed to Benjamin Franklin) about the perils of failing to prepare, and this couldn’t ring truer for ecommerce retailers in the lead-up to peak trading seasons such as Black Friday and Christmas.

Of course, while you can’t always predict what’s round the corner — supply chain calamities can strike when you least expect them — keeping a close eye on the calendar and anticipating demand can help you cope with surges in orders or floods of returns.

In this guide to ecommerce peaks, we explore the busiest periods of the year for ecommerce businesses — and offer our expert guidance on how to get your supply chain peak-season-ready.

January: New Year Sales

The idea of the traditional ‘January sale’ — when retailers heavily discount their ranges post-Christmas and eager shoppers scramble for a New Year bargain — has somewhat fizzled out in recent years, partly because many businesses now slash their prices before Christmas.

But while January may no longer dominate the retail calendar, it’s still an important time for many ecommerce businesses — it’s often seen as a time to ‘clear the decks’ of lingering inventory after the holiday rush, with many online shoppers still in bargain-hunting mode.

Certain ecommerce products tend to perform particularly well at this time too, driven by factors like New Year’s resolutions and post-holiday trends. For example, January is often seen as a time for self-improvement or home renovations, and as such, retailers may experience a surge in demand for the following types of products:

• Health and fitness products
• Home improvement and DIY supplies
• Winter gear and apparel
• Beauty and self-care products

On the flip side, it can also be a busy period for returns, with customers sending back unwanted gifts and retailers often extending their returns periods to allow pre-Christmas purchases to be returned in the New Year. This increased volume of returns can introduce an additional logistical strain.

When to start planning for New Year sales

While you’ll likely be in the throes of Black Friday and Christmas, you should really start prepping your supply chain for the New Year in early November. This allows enough time to assess your holiday inventory levels, anticipate post-holiday shopping trends, and prepare to attract customers ready to spend again after the seasonal rush.

A key element of this planning is reviewing your November to December sales performance to identify which products might need to be ‘cleared out’ with January discounts. Then, you can create sales campaigns that focus on clearing excess stock as well as offering products that align with New Year trends — like fitness gear or DIY supplies.

How to get your supply chain ready for New Year sales

• Review your reverse logistics processes. With returns often spiking in January, it’s important to ensure you have a smooth process for receiving and inspecting returns, processing refunds, and restocking or disposing of items.
• Focus on inventory clearance. The great ‘January sale’ may be less built into modern culture, but clearing last year’s stock in preparation for new ranges may require you to discount items significantly (or risk disposal costs).
• Don’t be blinded by holiday sales. While your primary focus will likely be ensuring sufficient stock levels for the holidays, it’s important not to overlook New Year’s planning and risk your best-selling lines being out of stock come January 1st.

February: Valentine’s Day

Valentine’s Day — a commercialised cash grab fuelled by clever marketing, or a heartfelt opportunity to celebrate the one(s) you love? Whatever your feelings on February 14th, it represents a key date in the ecommerce calendar for many retailers.

While “traditional” Valentine’s offerings like flowers and chocolates might be waning in popularity — with personalised gifts and experiences often seen as more thoughtful and imaginative — many ecommerce businesses will nonetheless see a spike in demand for products such as:

• Cards
• Flowers
• Jewellery
• Sweets and chocolates
• Personalised gifts
• Gourmet food and drinks

At the risk of gender stereotyping, Valentine’s Day is also sometimes associated with last-minute gift buying. Unlike periods like Christmas where demand tends to remain high for several weeks prior, spikes in Valentine’s sales will typically occur much closer to the date itself, with (some) shoppers likely looking for speedy delivery of an eleventh-hour purchase.

When to start planning for Valentine’s Day

Depending on how significant this time of year is for your business, you’ll probably want to start planning Valentine’s Day logistics as early as December, or at least when the peak holiday season is coming to an end. This allows time to forecast demand, secure inventory, and coordinate with suppliers for timely deliveries of Valentine’s-specific products.

While many Valentine’s purchases will occur close to the date, it’s also a good idea to focus on marketing campaigns that drive early orders, which can ease the pressure on your supply chain when the last-minute rush inevitably hits.

How to get your supply chain ready for Valentine’s Day

• Offer expedited shipping. Not all Valentine’s purchases occur at the last minute, but ensuring you have an express delivery option will help you cater to time-limited buyers and drive sales right up to the event itself.
• Leverage just-in-time delivery. For perishable items like flowers, just-in-time (JIT) stock management is essential, as it means you only receive items when you need them rather than keeping them on hand.
• Encourage early orders. Try to avoid a deluge of last-minute orders (which can put your supply chain under sudden intense pressure) by marketing your Valentine’s products and offers early and encouraging advance purchases.

March-June: Mother’s Day & Father’s Day

Created in the early 20th century — Mother’s Day was first introduced in 1908, while Father’s Day came a year later — Mother’s and Father’s Day are two key events in the calendar for many ecommerce retailers.

Mother’s Day, typically held in March or May depending on the region, often sees high demand for thoughtful gifts that reflect appreciation for mums, grandmothers, and maternal figures. Popular products include:

• Flowers
• Jewellery and keepsakes
• Candles
• Bath sets
• Gourmet chocolates

Father’s Day, which generally falls in June, tends to be a bit more relaxed, but it’s still a major shopping occasion. The focus here is often on practical gifts, hobbies, or experiences that celebrate fathers and father figures. Popular ecommerce categories include:

• Tech and gadgets
• Outdoor gear (such as barbecue tools or camping equipment)
• DIY or hobby-related gifts
• Subscription boxes (beer, coffee, or snacks)
• Fashion and accessories

When to start planning for Mother’s & Father’s Day

While these holidays typically don’t see the same intense last-minute shopping rush as something like Valentine’s Day, it’s still important to plan ahead: depending on how much demand you anticipate, starting your prep at least 6-8 weeks before should allow time to ensure you have enough of the right inventory and a clear marketing strategy.

Many people shop for Mother’s and Father’s Day weeks in advance, while others search for gifts at the eleventh hour. With this in mind, you might consider launching your marketing campaigns as early as a month ahead, but you’ll still need to ensure your supply chain is prepped for last-minute purchases.

How to get your supply chain ready for Mother’s & Father’s Day

• Check the dates in advance. Unlike Valentine’s Day, Mother’s and Father’s Day don’t fall on the same date every year, while the dates can also vary between countries. Don’t be caught out — check the calendar!
• Coordinate with suppliers for perishable items. If you sell flowers or gourmet food, coordinating just-in-time delivery is essential. Ensure your warehousing and logistics can handle the tight turnaround times for these products.
• Consider value-added services. Custom supply chain enhancements such as bundling or gift-wrapping can drive upsells and average order value — a 3PL provider can offer this while ensuring your fulfilment process flows smoothly.

July & October: Amazon Prime Day

While the name is a little misleading (it actually runs over two days, but Prime Days probably doesn’t have the same ring), Prime Day has become one of the biggest online shopping events of the year.

Launched in 2015 to commemorate the retail giant’s 20th anniversary (the company has come a long way since the days of Jeff Bezos shipping books out of his garage), Prime Day was created with the aim of boosting sales during the typically slower summer months.

It now runs twice annually — in July and October — with the July 2024 event generating an eye-watering $14.2 billion in sales.

Discounts are vast, varied, and often deep, but products which tend to pass through the Amazon checkout most often during Prime Day include:

• Consumer electronics (TVs, consoles, smartphones)
• Smart home devices
• Home appliances
• Fitness equipment
• Toys and games
• Fashion and apparel

While Prime Day is of course a huge date in the calendar for any company selling on Amazon through FBA or FBM (with over over 180 million shoppers purchasing on the site during the most recent iteration), the ripple effect of such a large-scale shopping event is felt across ecommerce as a whole — many retailers offer their own large-scale discounts or “anti-Prime Day” events to capitalise on consumers in ‘deal-hunting’ mode.

When to start planning for Prime Day

While it covers just four days a year (across two separate events), you’ll ideally want to allow at least 2-3 months to effectively ‘prime’ your supply chain for the surge in demand. Early planning is crucial, not least because Amazon sets a deadline for inventory to arrive at their fulfilment centres to guarantee your products are eligible for Prime Deals — usually 3-4 weeks before the event.

Additionally, since Prime Day often focuses heavily on electronics and home goods — which can have long manufacturing lead times and require ample storage space — it’s essential to prioritise inventory for these items well in advance.

How to get your supply chain ready for Prime Day

• Check Amazon’s inventory deadlines. Your inventory needs to reach Amazon’s fulfilment centres by a set date to be included in Prime Day. Make sure you’re aware of the cut-off and ensure you send in your inventory in plenty of time.
• Consider creating FBM offers. If you’re an FBA seller but your capacity limits are lower than the amount of inventory you expect (or hope) to sell, you can combine FBA and FBM offers to ensure you don’t run out of stock.
• Optimise your listings. Well-presented product listings (encompassing clear descriptions, high-quality images, and A+ content) aren’t just about boosting sales — accurate and helpful product information can also help reduce returns and ease post-Prime Day logistics pressures.
• Use a third-party fulfilment centre. Sellers who rely solely on their own warehouses may struggle to meet the sudden spike, while a third-party can distribute inventory strategically and enable you to scale up to meet the surge in orders.

August/September: Back to School

For kids, returning to school after the summer holidays can be a mixture of excitement and nerves, while as a parent it can often feel pretty stressful too — have they got everything they need? Are you ready to resume the school run? How have they outgrown their shoes already?

The “back to school” period can feel similar for ecommerce businesses; with parents scrambling to check off their shopping lists (often at the last minute), competition can be fierce and the need for convenience and swift delivery is critical. Products that often see a spike in demand as the summer holidays draw to a close include:

• Stationery
• Backpacks and lunchboxes
• Gadgets
• Clothing
• Shoes

When to start planning for Back to School

If you’re expecting a back-to-school rush, you’ll ideally want to start planning before the summer break even starts — around late May or early June. This enables you time to review sales data from previous back-to-school seasons, identify which products are likely to be in high demand, and pinpoint any potential gaps in stock levels or logistics.

You should also aim to finalise any promotional strategies early, including product bundles, limited-time offers, and discounts to attract early-bird shoppers. Launching these campaigns early in the summer holidays can capture the attention of those who prefer to avoid the last-minute rush — which can also level out spikes in demand.

How to get your supply chain ready for Back to School

• Communicate with suppliers early. Prioritise high-demand items and negotiate contracts to ensure you receive stock ahead of the busy season. Building buffer stock with key products like school supplies or laptops can help prevent shortages.
• Create pre-packed bundles. Build bundles of “back-to-school essentials” to speed up the fulfilment process and boost your average order value. A 3PL can help you do this through value-added services.
• Offer express shipping. Parents will often be shopping for last-minute essentials, so ensure you offer a guaranteed next-day delivery option to catch these late orders and drive up your back-to-school sales.

October: Halloween

All-Hallows Eve might not be a significant entry in the calendar for all ecommerce retailers, but for peddlers of costumes, candy, and creepy décor, it can result in spooky surges in traffic — making it one of the most exciting sales opportunities of the year.

Halloween isn’t just for kids, either. In 2023, Halloween spending reached over $12 billion, and even though it’s traditionally been viewed as more of an American phenomenon, interest in the UK has steadily grown over the past decade, with 2023 seeing a huge increase in Halloween-related sales.

While many online retailers attempt to capitalise on the Halloween hype, it’s most associated with specific types of products such as:

• Costumes
• Makeup
• Halloween decorations
• Sweets and chocolate
• Party supplies

When to start planning for Halloween

Halloween might be a one-day event, but it’s essential for businesses to start planning early. For retailers with Halloween-specific ranges, preparation should ideally begin around 2-3 months in advance, allowing time to assess the previous years’ trends, order inventory, and build spine-chilling marketing campaigns.

In the weeks leading up to Halloween, focus on finalising inventory orders, especially for high-demand items like costumes, sweets, and decorations. By August or September, you should begin optimising your logistics to handle an influx of orders and ensure your warehouse space and shipping processes are equipped to handle the volume.

How to get your supply chain ready for Halloween

• Stock popular items early. Ensure you’re stocked up on best-selling categories like costumes and decorations. Delays in inventory can be terrifying, especially with an event that theoretically only lasts for one day.
• Leverage advance marketing campaigns. Starting your Halloween marketing early not only helps you steal a march on competitors, but it can encourage early ordering and reduce the strain on your supply chain in the lead-up to the day itself.
• Optimise last-mile delivery. As Halloween approaches, customers will expect fast deliveries for last-minute orders of costumes or party supplies. Ensure your last-mile delivery options are efficient and consider offering express or next-day delivery.

November: Black Friday

Originating in the United States, Black Friday was initially the nickname given to the busy shopping period that occurred just after Thanksgiving — the name itself was apparently coined by police in Philadelphia to describe the chaos and heavy traffic that ensued as zealous shoppers flooded into the city.

Now, it’s widely considered the busiest shopping day of the year — in 2023, global Black Friday sales exceeded $70 billion — and is more synonymous with ecommerce than the high street, though brick-and-mortar retailers still typically see strong foot traffic.

While nearly all online retailers participate in Black Friday to some degree (and most will see significant upticks in traffic and revenue), the period is often most associated with big-ticket items; though the days of bargain-hungry shoppers wrestling over television sets are largely (thankfully) a thing of the past, the following product types tend to be popular:

• Consumer electronics
• Home appliances
• Furniture
• Toys and games
• Fashion and footwear

An offshoot of Black Friday is Cyber Monday, which was initially seen as the online counterpart to the former but has since merged with its pre-weekend cousin to form an extended period of discounting and deal-hunting. Most retailers now extend their offers to the days (or even weeks) surrounding the event, which is a good thing for supply chain planning since it spreads demand over a longer, more manageable timeframe.

When to start planning for Black Friday

Black Friday is the biggest shopping event of the year in many countries, and is considered to mark the unofficial start of the Christmas gift-buying season. So planning needs to start well in advance — for example, at least six months before the event itself.

Early prep leaves ample time to forecast demand based on historical data, identify potential bottlenecks, and work closely with your suppliers to secure the necessary inventory. Given the size of Black Friday, it’s crucial to ensure availability of key products, especially in high-demand categories like electronics and home goods.

By August or September, you should focus on optimising your logistics and fulfilment operations: at the very least, this involves ensuring your warehouse capacity is scalable, staffing is in place for the surge in order volumes, and transportation partners are made aware of the expected increase in shipments.

How to get your supply chain ready for Black Friday

• Spread your deals out. Black Friday is no longer just one day but a drawn-out period of deals and discounts. To reduce the burden on your supply chain caused by sudden spikes, spread (and vary) your deals over several days or weeks.
• Consider upping your storage capacity. You may need to hold a significant amount more inventory to avoid running out, so consider leasing extra space or using a 3PL to expand your storage capacity temporarily.
• Communicate with suppliers ahead of time. Discuss your projected needs with suppliers early and secure production slots to avoid delays. You can also negotiate for early delivery of critical items to account for unforeseen supply chain disruptions.
• Manage customer expectations. If you expect delays or you’re unable to guarantee next-day deliveries, make sure your customers are aware of this in advance. This can help prevent complaints, returns, and negative feedback.

December: The Christmas Season

Is Christmas the “most wonderful time of the year” for ecommerce retailers? Typically spanning November and December, it’s traditionally the peak season for online sellers, particularly now that many Black Friday deals extend into December.

In 2023, ecommerce sales hit record highs globally, driven by early promotions, the appeal of free shipping, and a growing number of consumers now attuned to the convenience and flexibility of online shopping. Hot-ticket items around the holidays often include:

• Toys and games
• Electronics
• Fashion and accessories
• Home décor
• Gift sets
• Food and alcohol

Early-bird shoppers are becoming more common now too, spurred by pre-holiday discounts and extended returns windows. This offers businesses a golden opportunity to meet demand, but it also comes with challenges — retailers need to keep their supply chains in top form throughout the entire season to ensure Christmas cheer doesn’t turn into delivery-related disappointment.

When to start planning for the Christmas season

Preparation for the holiday season should ideally begin in early summer, around June or July. This allows time to forecast demand, identify key product lines, and secure inventory well before the rush begins. With many consumers starting their holiday shopping as early as October (some even start searching in August!), it’s essential to have stock ready at least a good 2-3 months in advance.

Since Black Friday and the Christmas shopping period are now so inextricably linked — with many shoppers seeing Black Friday as the ideal time to tick off their festive to-buy lists — your holiday and Black Friday preparation should ideally go hand-in-hand, particularly if you’re planning to offer heavy discounts from late November right up to Christmas.

How to get your supply chain ready for Christmas

• Place bulk orders ahead of time. You’ll want to start stocking up early, focusing on high-demand items like toys, electronics, and Christmas décor. Ensure your inventory arrives by October to cater to early shoppers and prepare for the end-of-year rush.
• Make use of demand forecasting. Leverage historical sales and trend data to predict which products will be in demand. Automated inventory management systems can help ensure you have the right products in stock without overcommitting.
• Communicate your shipping deadlines. Make sure customers are aware of the order cut-off for guaranteed delivery by Christmas. Remember: it’s better to be slightly conservative than to end up making promises you can’t meet.
• Plan seasonal stock levels carefully. You’ll want to avoid being lumbered with unsold holiday-specific products in the New Year, so consider diversifying your Christmas inventory with evergreen products you can sell all year round.

Pro3PL’s ten tips for peak season planning

1. Forecast demand using data

Peak seasons can bring unexpected fluctuations and sales spikes, but early forecasting can help you anticipate which products and categories are likely to see a surge in demand. Dive into your historical sales data, analyse emerging market trends, and factor in external influences such as economic shifts.

2. Coordinate with suppliers well in advance

Strong relationships with your suppliers can make or break your peak season. Reach out early to secure your production slots, let them know your anticipated inventory needs, and agree on delivery schedules. A proactive approach to supplier management helps prevent last-minute shortages or delays that could scupper your plans when crunch time hits.

3. Scale your capacity and resources

As peak season approaches, it’s vital to assess whether your current warehouse space, technology, and staffing levels can handle the surge. You might consider temporarily expanding your storage capacity by leasing additional warehouse space, or partnering with a 3PL provider to ensure you can meet demand without overwhelming your core team.

4. Leverage real-time inventory management

In peak seasons, inventory moves fast — so real-time inventory tracking is essential. Maintaining a clear view of stock levels across all your warehouses and sales channels enables you to stay agile, reorder fast-moving products, and avoid those dreaded ‘out of stock’ notifications when demand surges.

5. Offer flexible shipping options

Flexibility is key during peak periods. While some shoppers are organised and shop well in advance of key events like Christmas or Valentine’s Day, others will be scrambling to complete last-minute orders and hoping to get them delivered on time. Offering a range of shipping methods and options ensures all scenarios are catered for.

6. Set realistic customer expectations

Customers expect convenience and speed when it comes to shopping online, but seasonal peaks can make it more difficult to meet these expectations. To avoid negative feedback or customer complaints, make sure you set reasonable expectations around delivery timescales and communicate any potential delays as early and as clearly as possible.

7. Spread the load

Peak seasons often involve sudden, concentrated sales spikes, which can put a huge strain on your supply chain over a short space of time. You can ease this by spreading key offers over a longer period (instead of going all out on Black Friday, for example) and marketing promotions early. This way, demand should be more consistent and manageable.

8. Diversify your product range

If you over-rely on seasonal products, you risk having outdated — and potentially unsellable — stock on hand as soon as the season is over, which can incur unnecessary costs. To avoid having to heavily discount or dispose of excess inventory, try to combine your season-specific items with more ‘evergreen’ products which have year-round appeal.

9. Prepare for returns

Returns are an inevitable after-effect of peak seasons, especially following events like Black Friday and Christmas. Prepare your reverse logistics to handle a potential flood of returns, making sure you have clear processes in place for returns inspection, restocking, and refunds to minimise delays and keep your customers happy.

10. Make sure you have a business continuity plan

Even with all the planning in the world, unforeseen issues can still occur. This is why it’s essential to have a business continuity plan — do you know what you’d do in the event of a website outage in the middle of a peak trading period, for example? Having this plan in place helps you keep things running when emergencies arise.

Staying ahead of the curve during peak seasons is all about preparation, agility, and a resilient supply chain. By forecasting demand, communicating early with suppliers, managing customer expectations, and scaling your resources, you’ll be ready to ride the wave of orders — no matter how big it gets.

With the right supply chain strategy in place — and the support of an agile, scalable 3PL provider like Pro3PL — you’ll not only survive peak periods but thrive, turning seasonal chaos into an immense opportunity for growth.